Broncos vs Chiefs Prop Paris for Sunday Night Football
The week off will have had major benefits for KC running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who should be perfectly healthy and ready to crush in a good spot. We have the value of CEH and more in our Broncos vs Chiefs accessory choices.
Sunday night ends with a crucial AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead, with Mahomes and Co. entering as the NFL betting favorites at 9.5 points.
Andy Reid comes out of the bye and we all know what that means. Can Javonte Williams exhibit a weak Kansas City tip defense with a possibly bigger role? Can Mahomes and the offense pull off big plays against Vic Fangio’s defense?
Find out in our free accessory picks for Sunday night’s Broncos vs. Chiefs battle.
Choice of accessories Broncos vs Chiefs
Click on each selection to proceed to the full analysis.
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Broncos vs Chiefs SNF Accessories
Melvin Gordon is doubtful to dress on Sunday night, which has got a lot in the world of betting and fantasy excited as we’ll finally see running back rookie Javonte Williams give the keys to the offense. Unfortunately, the market is aware of the running back’s skills and has increased their running total to 75.5 yards. As a 9.5-point underdog, it’s difficult to get a high peak total from a team that is likely to play from behind.
If we put together a single play parlay in bet365 and add the Chiefs -9.5 (-110) and over 75.5 rushing yards for Williams (-110), we get a rating of +600. Basically, the book says there’s a 14% (actually, probably a little less) chance that Williams will exceed that rushed total and that the Chiefs will hedge, thanks to a negative correlation.
Instead, we’re reaching over 25.5 receiving yards for Williams, as his role in the passing game should stay consistent in what Vegas thinks is a Kansas City win by more than one touchdown. Gordon is averaging 15.5 receiving yards per game while Williams is coming off a four-catch 57-yard performance last week, in what was mostly a positive game scenario.
We’re already on his +140 touchdown prop at bet365 and are adding over 25.5 to his receiving yards. It will be exciting to see what the rookie running back can do against a Kansas City defense that allows for the fifth most receiving yards per game per game.
TO TAKE: Javonte Williams Over 25.5 yards on reception (-120 to PointsBet)
Clyde the slide
With all the talk about the Denver defense, it’s pretty sweet against the run. The Broncos’ defense ranks 21st in EPA rush and 28th in rush success rate. The Chargers finished with just 72 rushing yards last week, but they are one of the lowest rush rate teams in the league.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to enter this Week 13 game almost 100% healthy after the bye. He saw 12 of the team’s 17 running backs carry two weeks and consistently went over 60 yards in the poor use role. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry and hopefully he can handle 14-16 carries in a game that should see Kansas City play in a positive play scenario as a 9.5-point favorite.
Denver is allowing 5.1 yards per carry in his last three and if CEH can rush to his 4.8 ypc average, he would only need 13 carries to hit 62 yards, which is a number that he reached in each of his four games before the injury. .
With a few legs resting, we could see a big game from Edwards-Helaire in a massive AFC West showdown. Mahomes and the passing game aren’t locked down, so a few more runs into the Kansas City backfield wouldn’t hurt either.
Edwards-Helaire’s rushed total is on the rise, but FanDuel still has a 56.5 (-114) while other books are already at 62.5 and lean over. We would take that up to 62.5 meters.
TO TAKE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 56.5 rushing yards (-114 to FanDuel)
More NFL Betting Choices
What would an SNF match be without a few long-term touchdowns?
On the Kansas City side, there aren’t a ton of options on the sidelines, but one receiver saw their role increase in Week 11 and appear to be working as the team’s second WR.
Byron Pringle’s TD price is +450 on bet365 and +350 or worse on other major books. Pringle completed a route on 66% of Mahomes’ passes in week 11, which was way more than Mecole Hardman’s 17.7%. Hardman’s TD price is also worse than Pringle’s at +333. Pringle plays 60% of the snaps in the team’s last two games, compared to 26% for Hardman, and taking him on a TD aviator at +450 is our top Chiefs aviator.
Turning the floor over to the Broncos, tight end Albert Okwuegbunam has carved out a minimal role in the passing game and was averaging 3.33 / 45/0 in three straight weeks before the pass. He was also not needed much last week, as the Broncos played with the header for most of the game against the Chargers. In the Broncos’ last four games, he has totaled 49%, 81%, 41% and 45% offensive snaps.
Kansas City allows the sixth-highest production to oppose tight ends and at +750 it offers one of the best long-term TD prices on the board. His targets of 0.21 per course are the same as the No. 1 Noah Fant.
TO TAKE: Byron Pringle anytime TD (+450 at bet365 at 0.5 units) and Albert Okwuegbunam anytime TD (+750 at DraftKings at 0.5 units)