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Home›Prisoners' dilemma›No matter who is in the White House, Washington’s grand strategy enshrines Egypt’s status quo

No matter who is in the White House, Washington’s grand strategy enshrines Egypt’s status quo

By Marian Barnes
December 15, 2021
25
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Despite some major differences and unresolved dilemmas between Egypt and the United States, it is premature to predict any significant changes in the carefully calculated pragmatic relationship between the two, writes Sahar Khamis.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi waits to take the stage to address the United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters on September 24, 2019 in New York City. [Getty]

Egypt has always been an important geostrategic ally of the United States due to its unique geographic location, vital Suez Canal, historical and cultural heritage, and being the largest country in the Arab world, politically and demographically. In addition, Egypt is the second-largest recipient of US military aid, after Israel, and has become an important intermediary in some regional conflicts, such as the Gaza war ceasefire and the Libyan crisis. .

This highlights the importance of the recent bilateral strategic dialogue between the two countries and its wide media coverage, which has mainly focused on areas of agreement. Equally important, however, is to highlight unresolved dilemmas and differences.

“The US position on human rights in Egypt has remained rhetorical rather than practical”

Frame the dialogue in Egyptian media versus Western media

The official, state-controlled Egyptian media celebrated the holding of the dialogue as a sign of Egypt’s strong relations with the United States. They included statements by Secretary of State Blinken on the importance of cooperation with Egypt and statements by Egyptian Foreign Minister Shoukry on the strength of bilateral relations between the two allies. They hailed the reaffirming joint statements as proof that the bilateral relationship has not waned under a Biden administration.

They have tactfully used this dialogue to send a message that not only are Egypt’s relations with the United States “indispensable”, as the Egyptian Foreign Minister described it, but rather that Egypt is itself is an indispensable ally of the United States, thus reinforcing the geopolitical importance of Egypt, while countering the growing influence of other Arab nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

However, some Western media pointed out that the two sides disagreed on some pressing issues – including Egypt’s human rights record, the military coup in Sudan, negotiations. on the dam of the Ethiopian Renaissance and Egypt’s increased economic and military cooperation with China and Russia, respectively, that the United States is uncomfortable with. This is why some Western media have described this dialogue as “attacking a myriad of irritants” between the two countries and that it takes place against a backdrop of tensions over Sudan and human rights.

Egypt’s human rights woes

Egypt’s deteriorating human rights record is attributed to a plethora of repressive measures, urging Secretary Blinken to make Egypt’s human rights record a key issue in the strategic dialogue.

However, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shoukry said during the strategic dialogue that Egypt’s human rights agenda will be driven by its priorities and needs, signaling that he does not welcome interference from others. country in this matter. The same message was conveyed by President Sisi during a meeting with the leaders of the European Union.

Because of these differences, Shoukry stressed that such discussions should be held in private rather than public, to avoid “a public disgrace which only creates negative attitudes in Egypt”.

Although Egypt recently adopted some symbolic measures, such as launching a national human rights strategy, tens of thousands of political prisoners remain behind bars. These include prominent political figures, such as Dr Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, whose state of health has deteriorated considerably, and political activist and blogger Alaa Abdel Fattah, whose life is in danger.

However, the United States’ position on human rights in Egypt has remained rhetorical rather than practical, disappointing some human rights activists who urged the United States to use the leverage of its military aid. to Egypt to exert the necessary pressure on the Egyptian regime.

The Biden administration’s decision to withhold only the token amount of $ 130 million of Egypt’s $ 1.3 billion annual military aid has drawn criticism from critics of the Egyptian regime and his supporters. Critics of the Egyptian regime viewed it as a disappointing light slap on the wrist, while supporters criticized the contrast to Israel’s total impunity, despite its human rights violations.

Divergent positions on the coup in Sudan

The United States was quick to condemn the military takeover in Sudan, calling it a coup, just as it called the confiscation of the powers of the Tunisian president a coup, unlike the military takeover in Egypt. in 2013, triggering some criticism of his chameleon policy. Egypt, unsurprisingly, has moved away from this label, choosing not to ask all parties in Sudan to remain calm and avoid violence.

Additionally, a Wall Street Journal article mentioned that there had been secret talks between President Sisi and General Burhan a day before the coup when Burhan flew to Egypt to obtain “fire. green ”for his plan.

Notably, Egypt has refrained from signing a joint statement drafted by the United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates calling for the restoration of a civilian led government in Sudan. Unlike Blinken who mentioned Sudan in his closing remarks after the dialogue, claiming that the two countries “have a common interest in Sudan’s democratic transition,” Shoukry did not mention Sudan, instead focusing on cooperation. mutual.

The reinstatement by the military council of Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was immediately hailed by Egypt as a step towards restoring stability. However, with protests and popular resistance in Sudan against this measure, this Egyptian support must be taken with a grain of salt, coming from a country where the military has derailed democratization, using similar tactics.

This new step has reduced the gap between the Egyptian and American positions on the Sudanese crisis since the United States indicated that they were “encouraged”. However, new developments in Sudan will determine whether this gap widens or narrows.

Progress blocked in Ethiopian dam negotiations

A key issue for Egypt is the “Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam” (GERD), which has created an unresolved dispute between Ethiopia on the one hand, and Egypt and Sudan on the other. .

Egyptian Air Force planes launched airstrikes on Sunday morning in the northern Sinai province of eastern Egypt, eyewitnesses and tribal leaders said on the New Zealand’s Arabic-language service. Arab.https: //t.co/zefiJDCG6P

– The New Arabic (@The_NewArab) November 29, 2021

With Ethiopia’s plan to begin the third filling of this dam next year and the limited progress on the negotiating front so far, Egypt hoped the United States could play a decisive role in the resolution. of this crisis.

However, to Egypt’s disappointment, between the outbreak of large-scale violence in Ethiopia, the many domestic challenges of the United States, and the military coup in Sudan, the timing couldn’t be worse for a breakthrough on this crucial question.

What happens next?

Egypt’s increased economic collaboration with the main economic rival of the United States, China, through the recent signing of new technical and economic agreements, worries the United States. What is even more concerning for the United States is Egypt’s growing military and economic cooperation and its closer relationship with Russia.

Therefore, far from a perfectly harmonious dialogue, through which Shoukry and Blinken were all smiles, as portrayed in some media, there were significant differences and unresolved dilemmas that they both had to face, which had been intentionally downplayed to paint a picture of a perfect dialogue, and an equally perfect relationship, to strengthen mutual strategic interests.

When President Biden became the new leader of the United States, there was much speculation around his new style of leadership, especially in the area of ​​foreign policy, raising the pressing question of whether we can attend. a new chapter in Egyptian-American relations, or whether it will continue on the same path as the previous American administrations, which mainly supported the Arab dictatorships, to the detriment of human rights, as long as they served the interests Americans.

“Despite some of the highlighted differences and unresolved dilemmas between the two countries, it is premature to predict any significant changes in the carefully calculated pragmatic relationship between the United States and Egypt.”

Although there have been some rhetorical changes in the recent US political discourse on Egypt, the current administration has issued statements stressing the need for more democracy and a better human rights record. in Egypt, unlike former President Trump calling President Sisi a “favorite dictator”. “, no significant change in US policy towards Egypt has been observed.

Some critics of the United States’ foreign policy of holding the middle stick when it comes to dealing with dictatorial regimes in the Middle East, including the Egyptian regime, claim that it is testing l ‘commitment of the current administration to democratic principles and human rights, and, in turn, its international credibility and moral authority, which were to take a better turn under President Biden’s new slogan: “The America is back ”.

Far from returning to the international arena as a strong leader, however, the United States is grappling with a unique and unfortunate amalgamation of internal challenges, which have a crippling effect on its international leadership and moral authority, including its capacity. to dictate the rules of the game to other countries in the field of human rights violations, dictatorship and corruption.

Despite some of the highlighted differences and unresolved dilemmas between the two countries, it is premature to predict any significant changes in the carefully calculated pragmatic relationship between the United States and Egypt, which continues to prioritize mutual interests, such as maintaining stability in the Middle East. , partnership in counterterrorism efforts and solid relations with Israel, on values ​​such as commitment to democracy and the safeguard of human rights and civil liberties. There is no reason to optimistically expect this democracy-security dilemma to be resolved anytime soon.

Dr Sahar Khamis is Associate Professor of Communication and Affiliate Professor of Women’s Studies at the University of Maryland. She specializes in Arab and Muslim media, and is a speaker and radio host.

Follow her on Twitter: @Skhamis

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board, or its team.



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