Our expert’s guide to betting last Sunday night’s football
| Loader ratings | -3 |
| Raiders odds | +3 |
| More less | 49 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | CNB |
If the Jaguars upset the Colts on Sunday afternoon, this game could invoke a good old prisoner’s dilemma, where the Chargers and Raiders could advance to the playoffs if this game ends in a tie. So if you’re reading this and the Jags won, run and bet an alternate total of less than 0.5 because 60 minutes of kneeling would bring these two teams into the playoffs!
More realistically, however, it will be a win or come home scenario for two passionate division rivals. The Chargers went about business in the first clash, winning 28-14 and covering the three-point gap at SoFi Stadium. Can the Raiders reciprocate on their playing field?
Click on the arrow to expand injury reports
Chargers vs. Raiders Injury Report
Charger injuries
- FROM Joe Gaziano (ankle): Outside
- LB Drue Tranquill (ankle): Questionable
Raiders injuries
- RB Josh Jacobs (ribs): Questionable
- TE Darren Waller (knee): Questionable
- DT Johnathan Hankins (rear): Questionable
- CB Casey Hayward Jr. (ankle): Questionable
Match Chargers vs. Raiders
| Chargers’ offense | Rank DVOA | Defense of the Raiders |
| 3 | Total | 23 |
| 3 | Past | 25 |
| 14 | To rush | 9 |
| Defense Chargers | Rank DVOA | Raiders offense |
| 26 | Total | 19 |
| 23 | Past | 17 |
| 32 | To rush | 25 |
| The Football Outsiders DVOA measures effectiveness by comparing a team’s success in each game to the league average based on the situation and the opponent. | ||
|---|---|---|
Chargers have a great offensive advantage
This is a great game for Justin Herbert, who rocks the kind of one-height security system (i.e. Cover 1 and Cover 3) headed by Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. According to Sports Info Solutions, Justin Herbert ranks fourth among quarterbacks with at least 100 above-average point attempts (0.135) against high single safety covers and leads all quarterbacks in Wins Above Replacement (2.2) against high single blankets.
Because of their affection for Cover 3, the Raiders are the heaviest defense in the NFL. It also plays into the strength of the Chargers, as no team averages more touchdowns per target relative to area coverage than the Chargers (4.3%, according to PFF data).
With the deep thirds of the field covered, Herbert was able to separate the Raiders below in the first meeting between these two teams in Week 4, completing 25 of 38 passes for 222 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The most disheartening thing for the Raiders in this game? Herbert didn’t need much from Keenan Allen (7/36/0) or Mike Williams (1/11/0).
The second most disheartening thing? The Las Vegas run defense, currently in the DVOA’s top 10, surrendered 168 yards on 34 carries (4.94 yards per carry) to the Chargers, the second best result of the season in Los Angeles. This is what happens when the opposing quarterback fits your plan well – you’re forced to weaken in other areas to compensate. Justin Jackson has become a solid complement to superstar Austin Ekeler, averaging 107 yards of scrimmage in the last three games.
Under first-year head coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers weren’t always consistent, but they were aggressive going for the fourth down and not just baskets in the red zone. This high risk, high reward strategy is the right long term approach, but it can sometimes lead to maddening results in any given game.
The problem for the Raiders is that they face a higher chance than any other team in the league to thwart Staley’s aggressive antics, as they rank 31st for the fourth-highest allowed conversion rate (68 , 2%) and 32nd for the conversion rate authorized in the red zone (79.5%.
The red zone problems are of particular concern not only because the Chargers will push the problem to a goal scoring position, but also because they have reached the red zone 71 times, which is the NFL’s second behind the Bills (73 ).
Raiders must find success early on
At this point, we all know what the Raiders are up against: If I gave you shoulder pads and spikes, you could run 100 yards against that Chargers defense. The Chargers allow 136.7 rushing yards per game (30th) and 4.6 yards per carry (28th), and they are ranked dead last in DVOA against the run. (I should note that this is partly intentional, as Staley aims to limit the big plays and is willing to concede the run at times.)
The Raiders have been a nearly mirror image of offensive incompetence, averaging just 90.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry, both ranked 29th. While they still have Henry Ruggs III (who has since been cut for his involvement in a fatal car crash) and a healthy Darren Waller (listed as questionable) to soften the defense, the Raiders only managed 48. scoreless yards in 18 carries in the first match.
In fact, the teams’ game in Week 4 may have been Staley’s best defensive game plan of the season, as the Chargers were not only able to keep the Raiders on the ground, but also kept Waller on the ground. a modest 4/50/1 line on seven targets.
What plagues the Raiders is a weak offensive line that ranks third in PFF team run blocking ratings (55.8) and 11th in team pass blocking ratings ( 60.8). The Chargers aren’t a good defense at all, but they still have enough talented players in their first seven – Joey Bosa, Linval Joseph, Kyzir White, Uchenna Nwosu, Justin Jones – to dominate the lesser offensive lines.
The key to hooking the Chargers is having success against them in the first downs in order to get into manageable third downs where running is always an option. The Chargers allowed a conversion rate of 49.7%, the worst in the NFL, on third tries.
When the two teams first met, the Raiders had 12 discs, and early plays of those discs combined to give them 77 yards. The problem? Of those 77 yards, 51 were caught by Ruggs, and the other 11 games totaled just 26 yards. Waller’s return means either one of himself, Hunter Renfrow, or a five-yard run from Josh Jacobs should be available on every first try, so he’ll be essential for the Raiders and Derek Carr coaching staff. come up with a better plan and get them in the right look.
NFL picks: Chargers vs. Raiders
The Raiders picked up an impressive 23-20 win over the Colts in Week 17 to give themselves a shot at making the playoffs this week, but it has all the makings for a disappointment against a division rival they won’t. do not compete well.
The Chargers’ biggest enemy has been themselves, while the Raiders have more serious flaws, both in terms of talent and scheme. In the first clash, the Chargers were able to plan their game in such a way that their weaknesses and the Raiders’ strengths were minimized.
The Chargers aren’t one of those teams that have a major advantage on the pitch, and so they shouldn’t be so tied up when they’re on the road, especially since there isn’t a lot of travel. here. In fact, the Chargers are 4-3 ATS on the road while the Raiders are just 3-5 ATS at home.
According to public betting data in the Action Network app as of Saturday night, we’ve been following 11 sharp moves on the Chargers, and I think it’s the right play as long as we set a basket or less.
Take: Chargers -3 | Bet on: -3
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