As the West imposed far-reaching sanctions on Russia in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, reports emerged that the United States could simultaneously lift sanctions against the regime of another brutal dictator. : Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. A surprise visit by a US delegation to Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, in March sparked immediate speculation that Washington was about to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports despite continued human rights abuses. man, political oppression and corruption of Maduro.

While the White House later quashed rumors of such a deal, Maduro and his allies seized the opportunity to sideline democratic forces and make his dictatorship the only path to stability in Venezuela. Tensions between Maduro and the opposition had been escalating for years, but came to a head in 2019 when Venezuela’s parliament, known as the National Assembly, refused to recognize the results of the 2018 presidential election – who were widely considered unfree and unjust – and declared National Assembly President Juan Guaidó interim president.

International recognition of the interim government, in which I serve as deputy foreign minister, varies, and many countries have relations with Guaidó and Maduro. The United States, for its part, recognizes Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela. But after years of decimating Venezuela’s political institutions, arresting and imprisoning political opponents and bringing down the Venezuelan economy, Maduro now appears to have calculated that Washington might abandon its commitment to Venezuela’s democratic forces and drop the sanctions that he had imposed on the Venezuelan state oil company. industry. It is imperative that the United States make it clear that this is not on the table and instead condition sanctions relief on democratic reforms.

As the West imposed far-reaching sanctions on Russia in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, reports emerged that the United States could simultaneously lift sanctions against the regime of another brutal dictator. : Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. A surprise visit by a US delegation to Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, in March sparked immediate speculation that Washington was about to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports despite continued human rights abuses. man, political oppression and corruption of Maduro.

While the White House later quashed rumors of such a deal, Maduro and his allies seized the opportunity to sideline democratic forces and make his dictatorship the only path to stability in Venezuela. Tensions between Maduro and the opposition had been escalating for years, but came to a head in 2019 when Venezuela’s parliament, known as the National Assembly, refused to recognize the results of the 2018 presidential election – who were widely considered unfree and unjust – and declared National Assembly President Juan Guaidó interim president.

International recognition of the interim government, in which I serve as deputy foreign minister, varies, and many countries have relations with Guaidó and Maduro. The United States, for its part, recognizes Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela. But after years of decimating Venezuela’s political institutions, arresting and imprisoning political opponents and bringing down the Venezuelan economy, Maduro now appears to have calculated that Washington might abandon its commitment to Venezuela’s democratic forces and drop the sanctions that he had imposed on the Venezuelan state oil company. industry. It is imperative that the United States make it clear that this is not on the table and instead condition sanctions relief on democratic reforms.

As a longtime advocate of Venezuelan democracy, I firmly believe that ignoring the Maduro dictatorship in the hope of lowering energy prices in the United States is not only ethically problematic, but counterintuitive. -productive and inefficient. Venezuelan oil will not reduce US fuel prices in the short to medium term, nor will it serve Venezuelans’ long-term goals of securing a free and democratic country. Solidarity with Ukrainian patriots does not mean abandoning Venezuelan democrats. On the contrary, now is the time for the United States and its allies to show their commitment to defending human rights, justice and dignity and to clarify that democracy is not a commodity that can be traded.

There are many reasons why the dilemma of oil versus dictatorship should be a failure for the United States. First, Venezuelan crude oil production is at a historic low. After years of mismanagement and corruption under Maduro, the national oil industry is in tatters. In the best-case scenario, experts estimate that Venezuela could, in the short or medium term, only reduce its production from 800,000 barrels to less 1 million barrels per day. Most Venezuelan oil is currently shipped to China. Even if Venezuela were to divert some of that oil to the United States, it wouldn’t make up for the nearly 700,000 barrels a day the country previously imported from Russia. More importantly, it would not impact the price of crude oil on the world market, which in turn determines costs in the United States.

More importantly, reaching a deal that goes beyond Maduro’s crimes will prove counterproductive to securing a stable and democratic Venezuela. Partnering with a brutal dictator allied with Putin will backfire. As evidenced by the conduct of Putin’s troops in Ukraine, dictators become emboldened when the international community fails to establish and enforce red lines. Surely Maduro will also redouble his repression if his human rights abuses, corruption and violence are met with impunity.

There are already indications that Maduro is heading down this path. Last fall, Maduro abandoned Norwegian-mediated Mexico City political talks aimed at reaching a comprehensive solution to the Venezuelan crisis — talks that the United States and Venezuela’s interim government strongly support. Instead, he embarked on a so-called National Dialogue, a series of state-sponsored consultations with local stakeholders ostensibly aimed at consolidating peace and economic recovery. In reality, the national dialogue is an overt effort to dictate the composition of the negotiating table and divide the opposition, bypassing these international efforts.

Credible, internationally negotiated negotiations offer Venezuela its best chance to emerge diplomatically from this crisis. But to achieve progress through diplomacy, it is not enough for Maduro to simply show up for the talks. He must also be prepared to negotiate in good faith. Moving the negotiations forward will require greater coordination among key stakeholders in the international community. International coalitions on Venezuela – such as the Lima Group and the International Contact Group – have become inactive and plagued by divisions. Maduro has also worked hard to forge alliances with leaders in Latin America because he understands that if he divides the international community – just as he seeks to divide Venezuelan democrats – he will emerge stronger.

To make progress through international negotiations, it is imperative that countries like the United States and Canada work with allies in Europe and Latin America to reinvigorate the talks. But it’s not enough for Maduro to return to the table. Sanctions relief for his regime must be conditional on progress at the negotiating table as well as concrete and irreversible democratic reforms and results in Venezuela.

Maduro must implement reforms that create the conditions for free, fair and verifiable elections and the restoration of the rule of law. These include implementing the recommendations of the European Union Election Observation Mission, releasing political prisoners, addressing structural shortcomings that have plagued the country’s lack of judicial independence, allowing investigations into allegations of human rights violations, to end the illegal destruction of the Venezuelan Amazon and the exploitation of its indigenous communities, and the implementation of dozens of recommendations issued by the High Office of the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights and the Independent International Fact Finding Mission, which cover the full range of measures to ensure an independent Supreme Court of Justice to credibly investigate human rights abuses.

But the pressure on Maduro can’t just be external. Those of us in the Venezuelan opposition must also do our part to ensure our country’s democratic transition. It means staying focused on the issues that unite us – democracy, human rights, political inclusiveness, free and fair elections and equitable economic growth – rather than letting our differences divide us. We cannot achieve our vision for Venezuela if we destroy each other or put our ego before our country. Venezuelans have for too long been subjected to the whims of strong men, convinced of their power and legitimacy. Rather, we must be guided by the will of the people.

As we reaffirm our united defense of democratic principles, Venezuelan democrats must also be candid about what is no longer possible. Neither side will emerge entirely victorious. A negotiated solution will require compromises on all sides, some of which will no doubt be difficult. We must be willing to consider power-sharing agreements with elements and institutions of the regime, as long as they have not committed human rights violations or crimes against humanity. The formation of a new National Assembly that represents both sides could offer an example of workable compromise.

Many Venezuelans are already considering these options and working behind the scenes to achieve democratic change. groups like Women for Democracy in Venezuelaan inclusive movement of women committed to democracy and women’s rights, which I co-founded late last year, are taking concrete steps to cross party lines, build bridges between politics and civil society and develop practical solutions that can break the country’s political stalemate.

Just as we strive to overcome our divisions, so does the international community. Venezuelan democracy deserves a fighting chance. Our international allies must ensure that Venezuelans’ struggle for freedom is not traded for elusive pennies, but rather sanctions relief is the basis for genuine democratic renewal.