Which votes BSP lost and to whom
the first The observation is that the BSP suffered a debilitating voice erosion of approximately 10% in all phases. But for the late gathering of the sixth and seventh phases, BSP’s vote share in UP would have fallen to single digits.
Second, the SP+ largely gained from the BSP in all phases, except in the third. It also gained significantly more from BSP than BJP+. Indeed, without the massive shift of the identity vote towards the SP+ during the first phase (11%), the BJP+ would have won most of the 58 seats in this phase.
You have to be a bit careful here, because the SP+’s main junior ally in 2022, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), had contested the 2017 elections alone. Thus, an increase in the vote share of the SP+ in 2022 includes the advantages of this covenant.
Nevertheless, given that the core areas of the RLD are limited to a few dozen seats in western UP, we can conclude that the bulk of the SP+ gain in the state came from the BSP.
The third, BJP+ not only had its lowest average vote in the seventh phase, but also suffered a marginal change in negative votes of -0.3%. This, together with BSP’s slightly improved performance, is what allowed SP+ to fare relatively better in eastern UP, and tie BJP+ in wins for once (both alliances won 27 seats each in this phase, out of 54).
Fourth, while the BJP+ recorded gains in six phases, they averaged less than 3%. It should also be noted that these gains do not only come from the BSP, but also include votes from the RLD, Congress, others, new allies like the Nishad party, and even SP+ in places.
Another way to understand how votes drifted away from the BSP is to plot wins, vote shares, and vote swings by vote swing bracket. The questions posed here by this approach cover: what was, for example, BSP’s vote share when its downvote swing was -10 to -15%, who benefited, and by how much?
Here is the BSP vote swing band chart, and it is an important chart: